APPLICATION OF BAYESIAN METHODOLOGY FOR THE ANALYSIS OF THE FOUNDATIONS OF THE MODERNIZED PIER OF PORTO NOVO (RIO GRANDE, BRAZIL)

Abstract

The aim of this work is to present the application of a procedure for updating the predictions of the bearing capacity of the piles, by using the driving data measured during the execution process. The updating is obtained through the application of the concepts of the Bayesian analysis. The uncertainty of the parameters is modeled by an "a priori" and an “a posteriori" probability distribution. The "a priori" distribution is obtained through semi-empirical methods for predicting the bearing capacity of piles based on Standard Penetration Test results. The construction of the “a posteriori" distribution is made by the updating of the “a priori” distribution, using a function of maximum likelihood based on data from driving registries. The procedure has been applied on a pile job, part of the project of a new pier at Porto Novo, in Rio Grande (RS).